Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 22.545293 24.510025 26.627611 29.089883 31.887216 34.981777 38.685385
2026-01-04 19.339956 22.009957 25.084959 28.928483 33.661673 39.378093 46.927932
2026-01-11 17.294602 20.399746 24.169961 29.173044 35.778094 44.413750 56.943901
2026-01-18 15.580250 18.895054 23.090806 28.935757 37.117030 48.582848 66.724980
2026-01-25 14.268356 17.703404 22.204469 28.740144 38.370846 52.749758 77.463059
2026-02-01 13.263977 16.782704 21.533944 28.691201 39.743192 57.256495 89.909584
2026-02-08 12.394759 15.945378 20.864412 28.515804 40.835016 61.456229 103.033421
2026-02-15 11.645509 15.198994 20.233940 28.292338 41.769377 65.515311 117.189309
2026-02-22 10.997775 14.538122 19.656146 28.062083 42.622648 69.556055 132.756610
2026-03-01 10.463591 13.997085 19.201982 27.962806 43.661407 74.132999 151.423505
2026-03-08 9.981363 13.495509 18.760730 27.824894 44.589745 78.667429 172.088953
2026-03-15 9.780469 13.398397 18.934175 28.736539 47.614369 88.381311 212.772447
2026-03-22 9.332285 12.902659 18.447363 28.465684 48.336453 93.239847 242.331637
2026-03-29 8.966749 12.513686 18.106065 28.423200 49.528843 99.606361 282.490865
2026-04-05 8.694068 12.253409 17.956285 28.715221 51.480046 108.532074 341.792004
2026-04-12 8.355355 11.867108 17.565198 28.507639 52.299521 114.688263 396.273355
2026-04-19 8.048616 11.515112 17.207663 28.327298 53.153402 121.259596 462.317763
2026-04-26 7.787738 11.223608 16.934423 28.284504 54.326249 129.253189 550.734547
2026-05-03 7.526308 10.917341 16.614550 28.114972 55.165477 136.529990 650.130102
2026-05-10 7.276024 10.617214 16.286532 27.897010 55.851820 143.606333 766.820156
2026-05-17 7.041529 10.332558 15.969112 27.671779 56.488266 150.825168 908.726956
2026-05-24 6.839981 10.094525 15.722449 27.574676 57.456191 159.794500 1107.533208
2026-05-31 6.645733 9.860224 15.468926 27.439566 58.303905 168.749705 1356.030709